The Abraham Accords, 2021–2025: Trade, Investment and People-to-People Ties

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1. Introduction

The Accords were signed on 15 September 2020, and the trade data reviewed here cover the full calendar years 2021–2025, which separates the early wave of agreements from measurable outcomes. In the months after the Treaty, the two governments signed a set of sectoral instruments covering investment protection, aviation, visas, science and finance (MOFA UAE 2020a). The question this paper asks is narrow: what do the published statistics and official texts show about economic links and contact between people since then?

The paper draws on two national trade series, the Treaty text, ministry and news agency releases, and corporate filings. It does not assess political relations beyond the points where they visibly affected economic links. Where a widely repeated figure could not be traced to an official source, it is listed in Section 8 and kept out of the analysis.

2. The legal and institutional base

The Treaty was signed in Washington, DC. It reaffirms the Joint Statement of 13 August 2020 and records an Agreed Protocol signed in Abu Dhabi on 1 September 2020 (UAE and Israel 2020). Its annex lists areas for future agreements, including finance and investment, civil aviation, visas and consular services, trade and economic relations, science and technology, and tourism.

On 20 October 2020 the two governments signed six instruments: an agreement on the promotion and protection of investments, an air services agreement, a mutual visa exemption agreement, a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on science and technology, an MoU on economic cooperation, and a declaration of intent on financial services (MOFA UAE 2020a). The UAE Cabinet ratified the visa exemption agreement on 1 November 2020, and tourist visas for Israeli passport holders were activated pending its entry into force (MOFA UAE 2020b).

Resident embassies followed in mid-2021. Israel's embassy in Abu Dhabi was inaugurated on 29 June 2021 (WAM 2021c), and the UAE Embassy in Tel Aviv on 14 July 2021 (MOFA UAE 2021).

The CEPA was signed on 31 May 2022 and entered into force on 1 April 2023. According to WAM, it removes or reduces tariffs on more than 96% of tariff lines, covering 99% of the value of bilateral trade, and the two sides set a goal of raising non-oil trade from US$1.3 billion in 2021 to US$10 billion by the end of the decade (WAM 2023).

Source: references cited in this section and in Sections 5 and 7.

3. Trade: two official series

3.1 Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics

CBS Table D1 reports Israel's goods imports by country of origin and exports by country of sale, in US$ million (Israel CBS 2023; 2025; 2026a; 2026b). Imports from the UAE rose from nil in 2019 to US$115.8 million in 2020, US$836.9 million in 2021 and US$1,890.9 million in 2022. They reached US$2,316.3 million in 2023 and US$2,753.3 million in 2024, before easing to US$2,574.9 million in 2025. Israel's exports to the UAE grew more slowly, from US$11.2 million in 2019 to US$637.3 million in 2022, then fell to US$626.6 million in 2023 and US$500.8 million in 2024, recovering to US$637.8 million in 2025. The 2025 values are as revised in the CBS edition of April 2026 and unchanged in the August 2026 edition of 17 September 2026 (Israel CBS 2026b). In January 2026, CBS had described the 2025 data as provisional, with final data due in April 2026 (Israel CBS 2026c).

Combined, CBS-recorded goods trade was US$189.8 million in 2020, US$1.22 billion in 2021, US$2.53 billion in 2022, US$2.94 billion in 2023, US$3.25 billion in 2024 and US$3.21 billion (US$3,212.7 million) in 2025. Israel has run a goods deficit with the UAE in every year since 2020, and imports made up about 85% of the total in 2024.

Later CBS editions revise earlier years. Israel's 2022 exports to the UAE were first published as US$669.9 million and later revised to US$637.3 million; 2024 imports were first published as US$2,754.4 million and later as US$2,753.3 million; 2024 exports were first published as US$494.0 million and later as US$500.8 million; and 2025 exports were first published as US$634.1 million and later as US$637.8 million (Israel CBS 2023; 2025; 2026a; 2026b). This paper uses the most recent edition for each year.

Source: Israel CBS Table D1, annual editions for 2022, 2024 and 2025 and the August 2026 edition (Israel CBS 2023; 2025; 2026a; 2026b). 2025 as revised in the April 2026 edition and unchanged in the August 2026 edition.

3.2 UAE Ministry of Economy

The UAE Ministry of Economy's trade portal publishes a non-oil trade report for Israel covering imports, non-oil exports and re-exports (UAE Ministry of Economy n.d.). Total non-oil trade was US$159.7 million in 2020, US$1,308 million in 2021 and US$2,527 million in 2022. It fell to US$2,316 million in 2023 and US$2,193 million in 2024, then rose to US$2,958 million in 2025, the highest value in the series.

Re-exports form the largest component in every year: US$1,419 million in 2022, US$1,277 million in both 2023 and 2024, and US$1,625 million in 2025. UAE non-oil exports of national origin grew from US$4.6 million in 2020 to US$599.1 million in 2025. Imports from Israel peaked at US$801.3 million in 2022 and stood at US$734.3 million in 2025.

From 2024 the report puts all trade under "Direct" and shows the free zone column as zero; in 2023, free zone trade was US$476.3 million. Totals do not fall by that amount, which suggests free zone flows are now included in the direct figures and no longer shown separately. The Ministry does not explain the change. Totals can be compared across 2023–2024; the direct and free zone split cannot. The report header reads "Last update: May 2020", which appears to be template text, since the tables run to 2025.

WAM's figure for 2022 non-oil trade, US$2.49 billion, up 90% on the year (WAM 2023), is close to but slightly below the portal's current US$2,527 million, consistent with later revision.

Source: UAE Ministry of Economy non-oil trade report, Israel (UAE Ministry of Economy n.d.).

3.3 Reading the two series together

The two series measure different things. CBS counts all goods, attributes imports to the country of origin and exports to the country of sale, and is compiled by Israel. The Ministry of Economy excludes oil, counts UAE re-exports of goods made elsewhere, and is compiled by the UAE. Goods that pass through the UAE but originate in a third country appear in UAE re-exports and in CBS imports from that third country. These differences explain why the two totals do not match and why their direction of change can differ, as in 2024, when CBS shows a rise and the Ministry shows a fall.

Both series agree that trade grew very fast from a near-zero base between 2020 and 2022 and that growth slowed after 2022. On either measure, the 2025 level is roughly a third of the way to the US$10 billion goal set for the end of the decade (WAM 2023).

4. Air links and tourism

The air services agreement signed on 20 October 2020 allows Emirati airlines to operate 28 passenger flights a week to Tel Aviv and unlimited weekly flights to Eilat, as well as cargo flights, with no restrictions on unscheduled flights (WAM 2020a). The first scheduled flydubai service from Dubai landed in Tel Aviv on 26 November 2020, and the airline announced a double-daily service (WAM 2020b).

This paper found no official series on visitor numbers between the two countries. Neither the UAE nor Israeli statistics offices reviewed here publish a bilateral tourism table in a form that could be opened and cited. Press estimates of Israeli visitor numbers exist, but the one checked for this paper could not be confirmed from the page as loaded, so it is not used (Section 8).

5. Investment

5.1 Framework

The investment promotion and protection agreement of 20 October 2020 gives investors in each country treaty protection in the other (MOFA UAE 2020a). On 11 March 2021, the UAE announced a US$10 billion fund for investment in strategic sectors in Israel, including energy, manufacturing, water, space, healthcare and agricultural technology, to be drawn from government and private-sector institutions (WAM 2021b). This paper found no official public account of how much of the fund has been deployed.

5.2 Transactions

The largest completed transaction found is Mubadala Petroleum's purchase of a 22% stake in the Tamar and Dalit gas leases offshore Israel. The company said it closed the acquisition on 9 December 2021 for US$1.025 billion (Energy Connects 2021).

A proposed acquisition by a BP and ADNOC consortium of participation units in NewMed Energy, which lists the Leviathan gas field among its operations (NewMed Energy n.d.), did not proceed on the original timetable. On 13 March 2024, NewMed told the Israel Securities Authority and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange that the committee assessing the offer and the consortium had agreed, "due to the uncertainty created by the external environment", to suspend discussions, and that the consortium "reiterated its interest" (NewMed Energy 2024). The filing gives no date for resumption.

Official bilateral FDI stock data, broken down by partner country, were not found in a form that could be opened for this paper.

6. Science, education and culture

Science and technology cooperation was among the first instruments signed (MOFA UAE 2020a). On 24 February 2021, MBZUAI and the Weizmann Institute of Science announced a joint programme of artificial intelligence research. It builds on an MoU signed in September 2020 and covers joint research, training, mutual visits, and exchanges of students and staff (WAM 2021a).

Official data on the number of students or academic staff moving between the two countries were not found. Cultural exchange is reported mainly through event announcements, which do not add up to a measurable series.

7. Where momentum has stalled

The documented evidence of slower progress after 2022 falls under two headings, trade and investment, set against a changed political context.

On trade, the UAE Ministry of Economy series fell in 2023 and 2024, before recovering in 2025 (UAE Ministry of Economy n.d.). The CBS series shows Israel's exports to the UAE falling in 2023 and 2024 while imports kept rising until 2024 (Israel CBS 2025; 2026b).

On investment, the NewMed process was suspended in March 2024 with reference to the external environment (NewMed Energy 2024), and no public account of the US$10 billion fund's deployment was found.

On 5 September 2025, the UAE stated, at a press conference following a session of the Council of Arab Foreign Ministers, that annexation by Israel of the West Bank, or of any part of the occupied Palestinian territories, "represents a red line" and "would undermine regional security" (WAM 2025). The statement did not refer to the Accords or to the CEPA.

The record also shows continuity. The CEPA has been in force since April 2023, and both trade series show 2025 values well above those of 2021.

8. Gaps

• Tourism. No official bilateral visitor series was found. A press figure for Israeli visitors in the first ten months of 2022 could not be confirmed and is excluded.
• Investment stock. No official bilateral FDI stock by partner was found for either country.
• Fund deployment. No public report of disbursements from the US$10 billion fund announced in March 2021 was found.
• Education. No official count of students or academic staff moving between the two countries was found.
• Services trade. Neither series covers services, so tourism, technology and financial services are absent from the trade figures.
• Free zone presentation. From 2024 the Ministry of Economy report shows all trade as direct and the free zone column as zero, after US$476.3 million of free zone trade in 2023. Totals remain comparable; the split does not. The Ministry gives no explanation.
• Israel Ministry of Economy. An Israeli Ministry of Economy page on the CEPA's entry into force returned an access error (403) and is not cited.

9. Recommendations

1. Publish a joint reconciliation of the CBS and Ministry of Economy trade series, explaining re-exports, free zones and oil.
2. Report CEPA utilisation, such as the number of preferential certificates of origin issued, as India's commerce ministry does for its own CEPA.
3. Publish bilateral visitor arrivals from official border or hotel data.
4. Report the deployment of the March 2021 investment fund at least once a year.
5. Track student and academic exchanges under the September 2020 MBZUAI–Weizmann MoU and similar agreements.

10. Assessment

On CBS figures, goods trade between the UAE and Israel moved from near zero in 2019 to about US$3 billion a year by 2023 and has stayed around that level since. The UAE Ministry of Economy non-oil series is lower, at US$2.3 billion in 2023, before reaching US$2.96 billion in 2025. The CEPA came into force in April 2023, after most of that growth had already happened, so its separate effect cannot yet be read from annual totals. Investment is lumpy and dominated by energy. Data on people-to-people ties are the weakest part of the record, and the claims most often made about tourism and education cannot be checked against official numbers. The September 2025 statement and the 2024 suspension are the clearest documented signs of strain, while the 2025 trade figures are the clearest documented sign of resilience.

About this paper

This paper was prepared by the EPIC Research Team. Sources were opened and checked on 28 October 2026 (Asia/Dubai). Trade figures are in current US dollars as published. CBS 2025 values are as revised in the April 2026 edition.

References

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